...futility of nation-wide opinion polls in US elections

image: Real Clear Politics

"Obama dominates Romney". "Romney is leading by a slim margin in nationwide polls". We hear these and similar headlines from the mass media. But these are completely irrelevant pieces of information. The reason for which is simple. The US elections are not determined by nationwide voting but rather by electoral college, which is by its very nature is state-based. In terms of predicting the outcome of the election it is necessary to determine state based polls and weigh their results by the college's weights. And those results have to be binary, meaning either one or the other candidate has to be crowned a winner (with a few marginal exceptions). This is a reason why it is critical to follow the mood of the few swing states, which have enough electoral weight, and where the preference is not clear. In this election it is all about Ohio and Florida, for example. And the polls there are the only ones that are worth watching.

The only site that seems to be getting this is Real Clear Politics. Despite their conservative bias, they combine most statewide polls on the national maps showing various degrees of dominance of one candidate over the other. And according to their data, despite narrow nation-wide polls, Romney never overcame Obama throughout this campaign.

There are two ways to look at their data: either by assigning a degree with which each state leans one way to the other (1) or plain assigning the state to the current leader (2). As we said earlier, Romney is yet to lead. Currently, they are calling 281-257 for Obama, even though Romney is currently leading in Florida.

... Engineered Consent

This video has been sent to us by one of our readers. It deals with the exactly the kind of subjects that made us start this blog. A lot of things that we do in our daily lives, a lot of thoughts and ideas that we might be having we designed and placed upon us by someone else. It is important to recognize that and attempt to live a bit more “examined life”. The title of the video “Century of Self” does not do justice to this four-hour program. One of its subtitle “Engineered Consent” makes much more sense. So, set a side a weekend afternoon and prepare to be shocked.

…old-fashioned taxes

Canadian government figure out a brand new Alternative to tax its subjects. As of September 2009, all cable and satellite TV customers will have to pay an extra 1.5% of their bill. Guess where they promise for the money to go to? To subsidize local TV stations in markets of less than 1 million people. There are at least 3 things that a wrong with that, besides being a way to grab more money from already cash-strapped taxpayers:

1. How do you define a “market”?


2. There are only 30 million people live in Canada, how many markets can there possibly be?


3. So, if I decide to live in a smaller community, does it mean everyone else should pay for my entertainment?

Of course, there are Existing Alternatives to resist this new invention:

1. You can stop watching TV


2. Switch back to antenna and watch whatever channels are still available in analogue


3. Steal satellite signal from US

Could this be the true hidden agenda?

For more information check out http://www.crtc.gc.ca/

Image by It's Only Stock

... waiting for someone else to defend you

In today’s world we learned to rely on the outside help for pretty much everything in our lives, be it food, jobs, and even security. It is amazing to see people from other countries demanding that foreign governments send their troops to resolve their internal problems.

Sometimes you see hundreds of capable young men from distant countries on major intersections of Western cities demanding “justice” and action on part of our governments to protect them from their local dictator of sorts. One would think that if they were able to organize themselves to protest, they just might as well march back home and take the issue into their hands. If history taught us anything, dictators only strive on the apathy of their objects.

In recent news, we hear that citizens of a small town of Bangadi in Congo, constantly being harassed by rebels, have discovered an Existing Alternative to waiting and pleading for help. Of course, they started off calling Congolese army and UN. What they soon discovered is that Congolese army is mostly composed from former rebels and UN troops are too few and slow to respond. The only alternative they had was to mobilise themselves. They picked up anything that could be used as a weapon, kitchen knives, sticks and rocks and marched out to meet the rebels head on. Guess what, it worked. While the rebels continue to terrorise the surrounding country, they are leaving the town alone.

Strangely enough, a new threat appeared in the form of Congolese troops, who arrived recently and demand provisions from the impoverished town cut off from its fields and pastures.

What an excellent lesson in self-sufficiency and reliance. Our heart goes out to those fighting for their homes and families as opposed to those demanding for someone else to do the fighting.

... two-dimensional electoral maps

Throughout this year’s election season everyone was messing around with electoral maps – what if this state turns red and that one blue, etc. With the results already in, most maps simply looked at the number of Democratic votes compared to Republican votes. But what about the silent third party minority? It is almost impossible to find anything relevant out there.

Existing Alternatives team came through once again and uncovered the Associated Press 2008 General Elections map. It covers all the usual Obama – McCain stuff and much more, with minor party candidates, congressional, senatorial and governor races. It also pays a special attention to the ballot initiatives. Did you know that California that voted so overwhelmingly for Obama, completely shut down any idea of gay marriage? Or that assisted suiside is now ok in Washington; there is no more affirmative action in both Colorado and Nebraska; and universal healthcare is finally embraced by all-red Montana? And guess what, in Massachusetts it is now ok to smoke pot, but their taxes will likely to go way-way up – complete new meaning to the Boston Tea Party, eh?

... messy politics

The spirit of all things democratic got us thinking about the very idea of representative democracy. Can anyone really say with a straight face that the Electoral College is the best way to determine the intent of the entire nation? Or how about the very fact that the newly elected US President represents only 51% of population? With literally billions of dollars spend just to gather the support of barely half of the nation, with tons of laws passed to prevent ballot access or voter registration, with the very concept of “gerrymandering”, can this whole system be any more complicated!

Well, guess what, Existing Alternatives team is at it again, we have found it!
An Existing Alternative to this whole mess.

To those on the extreme left, this could sound like a complete anathema, but we are about to use private corporations as an example. Contrary to the belief of some of the population, most large corporations are owned by multitudes of small investors. Each of those investors has a say in the dealings of the company proportionately to his or her share in the capital, hence they are called shareholders. Every year (and sometimes more often) corporations call on all their shareholders to make decisions in the direction and actions of the corporation. Those decision could be a pure formality, as appointing an auditing form, or pretty much any initiative moved by any shareholder. Obviously, not all shareholders attend those meetings, but some do. Most vote by proxy, which gives the board of directors, or any other representative, the right to vote for them.

Now, aren’t we sort of shareholders in our own country?
Should not we all be allowed to participate? The biggest peeve that we see here is that it all depends on where you live. For example, if you live in a Democratic district, any Republican vote is wasted. What if a geographically dispersed small group of individuals have something to say? Forget about, you either all have to move together, or adjust your principals to toe the line of the major parties.

Under the “corporate” system, an individual can attend the meeting or they can send someone else on their behalf. You can even pay the guy if you want. This way your representative represents … you! and does not ask for any additional compensation from the treasury!

How does that sound?

… costly election

Our last post comparing the U.S. and Canadian general election process mentioned that in Canada elections cost just about $6 per person. Mind you, not every person is eligible to vote or does vote. In the last general election (January 2006) out of 30mln people 23mln were eligible to vote and 15mln actually did. So, the total cost of the election would be around $9 per eligible voter or $13 per vote.

These numbers are even more impressive, considering that the government distributes around $1.75 for each vote back to the parties (new rules involve a very complicated formulas designed to undermine smaller parties).

So, the question that we have, rather than deducting all these funds from general budget, wouldn’t it make more sense to simply charge every voter $9, thus promoting participation?

Unfortunately, that is still a non-Existing Alternative, but we do encourage voters and policy makers to really think outside the box in making the democratic process more self sustainable.

All numbers are courtesy of Elections Canada

... complicated election process

The United States has been in the election mode for at least one year trying to pick its president. In the meantime, a general election was called in Canada. Both elections will determine which party will run the respective country and both will be held in the relative spirit of democracy. However, the similarities end there. With all the controversy, expenses and showboating that we observe in the United States, Canadian elections offer a great Existing Alternative and an example of how a general election can be done. Here are some of the lessons to consider.

Canadian general federal elections last for now more than 40 days (it’s a law!). And all the campaigning is limited to that timespan.

Last Canadian election cost just over $200 mln or $6 per person (including the cost of counting all eligible voters). By comparison, each Republican and Democratic conventions cost $20 mln. And yes, we are only talking about taxpayers’ costs not funds raised.

Provided that in Canada majority party in Parliament gets to form a government, there is needed only one general election.

The number of major parties is five: Conservative, Liberal, NDP, Bloc Quebecois, and Green, and yes, they all are allowed to participate in debates.

And yes, all parties who run candidates are allowed on a ballot.

Word like "Conservative" and "Liberal" are actual party names, not bickering labels.

Instead of complicated touch-screen, pull-lever, butterfly ballots, Canadians use single piece of paper and mark X on it with a pencil.

Oh yeah, there are no booths, curtains, or scanners, but rather carbon-box stands and boxes made from 100% post-consumer materials.

In Canada the election results are available in less then an hour after the last poll is closed, because all they need to do is … count the ballots – no hanging chads or rebooting Diebolds here.

So yeah, there are easier, cheaper and faster Existing Alternatives in running the democratic process!

Ron Paul is Back!

Ron Paul is back in the race! Only now as a benchmark to help Americans decide who to vote for in the presidential election, proving yet again that he is still an Existing Alternative . Liberty Maven have designed Paul-o-Meter, a list of questions that supposedly evaluate all major points that Ron Paul stands for and assigns values to all the candidates, based on where they stand. So is it Barak, John, or Bob for you? Check it out.
I specifically like the part where any of the candidates can score up to 99 points, and only Dr. Paul can reach full 100.

Creative Campaigning – Part 2

Ron Paul’s supporters prove to be not only resilient, but also a creative bunch. They managed to uncover yet another Existing Alternative to traditional campaigning. This time they are going for pin-up style calendar. Hotties4RonPaul are baring it all for Liberty. While raising awareness for their candidate, they are also raising money for a worthy cause – homes for troops returning home.

Just like in the case with Ron Paul Air Force, the Hotties are not associated with the campaign and the money raised will not go to Ron Paul. That is definitely in true Existing Alternatives spirit: use an old idea for a brave new cause, help a cause and, maybe, change the world a little.

To prove that that was a great idea, their first batch is completely sold out days after launch!

Creative Campaigning

Current presidential election in the United States produced a number of creative campaigning methods. Traditionally, candidates ran TV ads, sent out direct mail pieces, appeared in debates, kiss babies and shook lots of hands. Ron Paul’s campaign machine uncovered a number of Existing Alternatives to traditional campaigning. We are not just talking about his record breaking Facebook and MySpace profiles. Rather, we are talking about what has been christened as Ron Paul Air Force. Activists at Liberty Political Advertising take it to the air to promote the cause of Freedom. They hired first a blimp and later airplanes with banners displaying messages spreading awareness of Ron Paul’s Revolution.



The best part is that Liberty Political Advertising claims to be a for-profit marketing organization not associated with Ron Paul’s campaign. They do collect financial contributions from supporters in form of purchased advertisement. This way, the contributions are not counted towards campaign rules’ limits. Now that is a true Existing Alternative: (a) Use existing methods creatively, (b) legally circumvent imposed rules, (c) make money in the process.

Opinion polls aren’t the best way to predict an outcome of the election – Part 2

It has come to our attention that there is yet another Existing Alternative out there to predict the outcome of the election. Jon Stewart and his team at Daily Show has come up with a sort of “buzz meter”, what they call a Candidate Stock Tracker.

Actually, there are no stocks to track and the updates are daily at best. However, the idea is quite interesting. The Tracker attempts to compile the relative value of buzz generated by candidate through online media. So far, it looks like Obama is in the lead...

It appears that the creators built in significant amount of bias into the tracker (such as defining which candidates are viable). Also, this should definitely be taken only for its entertainment value. But at the end, it could just be as accurate as anything else currently available.

Nonetheless, given that the Indecision 2008 team created a nice widget to go along with the project, we have decided to include the tool in our website for the duration of the Election.
Until next time, keep your eyes peeled for more exciting Existing Alternatives.

How does one select a candidate

The battle rages on in the United States – on both sides of the aisle candidates are fighting for the chance of standing in the biggest election of their life. Most of them are great people undoubtfully trying to do the best for the country. The main question remains, how should individual voter chose their candidate.

The easiest choice of course is letting others decide. Stay and home, enjoy re-runs on TV and hope for the best. In our opinion, unless you have some higher moral objection to the democratic process, staying on the sidelines puts responsibility for all the mistakes made by other voters on your shoulders.

The route chose by most is, in our opinion, just as irresponsible. It appears that most voters simply follow the polls and try to vote for the person who is most likely to win. It is obviously great to be able to pick the winner, but then again, is it really your choice.

As always, there are Existing Alternatives out there! The first step is to figure out where does one stand on issues. The most critical issues affecting the United States right now appear to be:

• The state of economy,
• Situation in Iraq,
• Illegal immigration,
• And cost of healthcare.

Before making a decision, one should be very clear where does one stand on each of those. The next step is easy: figure out which candidates reflect your ideas most.

Luckily there are tons of Existing Alternatives out there to help. Our favorite this election season is, Glass Booth, which focuses exclusively on the issues that are important to you.
There is always an extensive collection of political selectors at Select Smart. This site is always on the forefront of intelligent decision making. By the way, they also provide means to create any kind of custom selectors – highly recommended.
And finally there is Know Before You Vote, somewhat partisan, very pro-Ron Paul issues only comparison chart.

Please enjoy responsibly and make intelligent decisions. …and keep on the lookout for Existing Alternatives.

Opinion polls aren’t the best way to predict an outcome of the election.

Right now the United States are deep into presidential primary election. All sorts of pundits are out on TV and media to predict the most likely outcomes of elections. While they do bake in tones of theories and case scenarios into their predictions, most valuable piece of their analysis is based on opinion polls. As the current election season is proving these methods are not the most accurate.

What specifically is wrong with opinion polls:

• Samples. Most samples are extremely small. Can 1,000 people represent the attitudes of a country of more than 300,000? They may, if they are perfectly random. There is no way any pollster can maintain the perfectly random selection, which brings us to the next point...
• Selection. Where do pollsters get the phone numbers? Regular panels (who’s opinions are already known), purchased lists (who’s replies are less than guaranteed), random numbers (that actually may lead to a more random sample, but the process becomes prohibitively complex) .
• Pollsters’ preferences. With average reported (really, who keeps tabs on those) margins of error around 5%, when two front runners have the spread of less than 10%, pollster will feel absolutely no remorse assigning victory to either one of them (and that is actually quite acceptable). In this year’s race where the pendulum swings widely from state to state, the poll numbers are almost entirely in the hands of the poll-takers.
• Timing. It takes time to conduct the poll and compile the results. This process can take weeks. In the meantime, life goes on and races do not stop. The final outcome may be impacted by completely different events than the polls. Mind you, pollsters do adjust the results to reflect the most recent events, but that further diminish the quality of the prediction.
  
  

There are even more things that are wrong with polls from the statistical point of view. Rather than diving deeper into that, let me bring up the Existing Alternative to the polls. Political Odds. Yes, pundits have been using them quite a bit as well, but more of the supplement.

We see the odds as by far stronger predictor of the election than the polls, simply because the odds-makers are forced to adjust the odds in order to remain competitive. And the gamblers are betting their own money against bet-takers’ on the outcome. All opinions and political agendas are usually swept aside in these transactions.

In this election we are found OddsChecker.com to be the most reliable compiler of multiple betting houses, which allows us for a fuller market view. Please see the link to the coverage of the 2008 US Presidential Race here. (We are not promoting gambling or were paid by any related service)

One thing to be aware of (outside the terrible side effects of gambling) is the “play money” markets. CNN and other news organization trying to cash in on the political booking boom created these fake “fantasy markets”. The fact that people risk absolutely nothing leads to completely false dynamic that produces extremely unreliable predictions, left alone, entirely unverifiable odds maintenance.