...futility of nation-wide opinion polls in US elections

image: Real Clear Politics

"Obama dominates Romney". "Romney is leading by a slim margin in nationwide polls". We hear these and similar headlines from the mass media. But these are completely irrelevant pieces of information. The reason for which is simple. The US elections are not determined by nationwide voting but rather by electoral college, which is by its very nature is state-based. In terms of predicting the outcome of the election it is necessary to determine state based polls and weigh their results by the college's weights. And those results have to be binary, meaning either one or the other candidate has to be crowned a winner (with a few marginal exceptions). This is a reason why it is critical to follow the mood of the few swing states, which have enough electoral weight, and where the preference is not clear. In this election it is all about Ohio and Florida, for example. And the polls there are the only ones that are worth watching.

The only site that seems to be getting this is Real Clear Politics. Despite their conservative bias, they combine most statewide polls on the national maps showing various degrees of dominance of one candidate over the other. And according to their data, despite narrow nation-wide polls, Romney never overcame Obama throughout this campaign.

There are two ways to look at their data: either by assigning a degree with which each state leans one way to the other (1) or plain assigning the state to the current leader (2). As we said earlier, Romney is yet to lead. Currently, they are calling 281-257 for Obama, even though Romney is currently leading in Florida.

... waiting for someone else to defend you

In today’s world we learned to rely on the outside help for pretty much everything in our lives, be it food, jobs, and even security. It is amazing to see people from other countries demanding that foreign governments send their troops to resolve their internal problems.

Sometimes you see hundreds of capable young men from distant countries on major intersections of Western cities demanding “justice” and action on part of our governments to protect them from their local dictator of sorts. One would think that if they were able to organize themselves to protest, they just might as well march back home and take the issue into their hands. If history taught us anything, dictators only strive on the apathy of their objects.

In recent news, we hear that citizens of a small town of Bangadi in Congo, constantly being harassed by rebels, have discovered an Existing Alternative to waiting and pleading for help. Of course, they started off calling Congolese army and UN. What they soon discovered is that Congolese army is mostly composed from former rebels and UN troops are too few and slow to respond. The only alternative they had was to mobilise themselves. They picked up anything that could be used as a weapon, kitchen knives, sticks and rocks and marched out to meet the rebels head on. Guess what, it worked. While the rebels continue to terrorise the surrounding country, they are leaving the town alone.

Strangely enough, a new threat appeared in the form of Congolese troops, who arrived recently and demand provisions from the impoverished town cut off from its fields and pastures.

What an excellent lesson in self-sufficiency and reliance. Our heart goes out to those fighting for their homes and families as opposed to those demanding for someone else to do the fighting.